Odds & Ends — Election Trends

Here are some particulars that may or may not change in 2008.

– Since 1904, Missouri has always voted for the eventual winner of the election in a presidential election, with the single exception of the 1956 election. Currently, Missouri is trending for McCain. If Obama does win then it would mark the Show Me State’s second deviation from the national norm.

– McCain leads in West Virginia by eight points. The last Democrat to win the White House and lose West Virginia was Woodrow Wilson in 1916.

– Obama leads in Nevada. The Silver State has picked the winner in the last seven elections. If Missouri falters, Nevada then assumes the title of most consecutive times of picking the winner.

– Since 1964, the winner has taken at least two of the following three states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama now leads in all three though the race remains competitive in the first two.

– From 1856 through 1960, Vermont always voted GOP. It is the only state in the Union that can make that claim. It voted for a Democrat for the first time in the LBJ landslide of 1964. The second time that the Green Mountain State would go blue was in 1992 when it voted for Bill Clinton. It has voted Democratic ever since.

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Posted in History by Charles Lemos
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October 5th, 2008 7:13 am
Another interesting tidbit: since Mississippi and Alabama both voted in the electoral college for the first time in 1820, have voted for the same party every single election except for 1840 when MS selected WH Harrison (W) and AL selected M Van Buren (D). The only other time of even minuscule disagreement was in 1960, when MS put forward two different slates of electors, one for Kennedy and one unpledged. All 8 of its electors eventually wen to the Democrat HF Byrd . Instead of two slates, MS split its slate into two groups of delegates, 6 of which eventually went to Democrat HF Byrd and 5 to Democrat JF Kennedy.

October 5th, 2008 3:43 pm
Interesting tidbits. I’m watching what’s happening in Virginia closely.

It’s hard to get a read on Virginia because there are such diverse areas…Northern Virginia is like a different state from the rest of Virginia.


Charles Lemos
October 5th, 2008 5:41 pm
More an oddity but since becoming the nation’s most populous state after the 1960 Census but only reflected in EC votes after 1970, California has yet to play a pivotal or determining role in any election. Its trove of electoral votes certainly provide a running head start to any candidate but it hasn’t been decisive in any election.

Granted it now is pretty blue, having last voted GOP in 1988. Its 55 EC votes, sure to grow in the next Census, seem likely to give the Democrats to give an edge going forward at least in the near term. The state GOP is pretty much moribund.

October 5th, 2008 11:59 pm
the trends show a obama win-but the most trying part of oct lies ahead. can he beat back the new mccain attacks? can obama tar mccain with keating 5? tues debate will be must see

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